9 Games Out And The "Experts" Say It's Over, Why You Shouldn't Listen To Them

On the eve of the start of the second half of the 2007 baseball season, the New York Yankees stand 9 games ( in the loss column) behind the first place Boston Red Sox. With 77 games remaining on the Yankees schedule, most "experts" have concluded the Yanks won't catch Boston, and have labeled people like me (those who feel the Yanks can win this division) as "nuts", "dreamers",  and just chalk up my 1978 talk as "wishful thinking" from a diehard fan.  My response to people who deride me, laugh at me, or discount me as a "pinstripe dreamer"  has always been, "who cares"?

One thing I have learned over the years is, there are no "baseball experts" out there. Yes, this year, a baseball writer on the YES Network website can sound like a genius saying how the Yankees are out of it and should blow it all up and start trading stars. So far, this guy is looking pretty good. But you know what? Two years ago (2005) when the Yanks trailed Boston by four or five games in early July, this guy wrote the same thing. He went on to say the Yankees should trade "aging" players like Jorge Posada. Well, the Yanks came back and won the division that year, and thankfully, Brian Cashman doesn't get his "expert" advice from columnists, for Jorge Posada is still a Yankee.

In July of that same year, a seasoned Boston Globe columnist, declared Boston would win the division by at least 10 games over the Yankees.  This "expert" then spent the next  2 1/2 months fending off critics as the Yankees passed Boston and won the East title. Last season when the Yankees were four games out on the 4th of July, we heard and read the same kind of "Yankee demise" stories. As a matter of fact, ever since their historic 1998 season, every time the Yankees fall back in the division by more than a handful of games, we hear and read the same kind of gloom and doom.

So from these few examples, and believe me, there are many, many more, you can see why I chuckle at what these "experts" write as much as people chuckle at my optimism for this 2007 Yankee team. If the season ended in July, I would tip my cap to the "experts" out there and give them their due. However, the season doesn't end this early, and that's where these journalists seem to be making their mistake. In an effort to come up with a  "Man Bites Dog" story, these writers are always quick to write the Yankees off. This year, they have been doing just that since May, and now I will go on to explain why they will be wrong----AGAIN.

WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE IN THE FINAL 77 GAMES

Let's get this straight from the start, the Yankees are going to have to do a lot of things better than they did in the first half of the season to catch Boston. No, they don't need Lou Gehrig, Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle, or Joe DiMaggio to rise from Monument Park to help the team out, but they are going to need better second halves from numerous players.

In my opinion, Johnny Damon is going to be the most important player who has to step it up during the second half of the season. As I've written many times this year, I appreciate the fact that Damon plays hurt, but he's going to have to start producing soon.  Hitting in the leadoff spot in front of  guys like Jeter and A-Rod, Johnny has to hit better than .245 and has to get on base at better than a .339 clip. The Yankees have trouble scoring first inning runs, and that's because they haven't had a consistent table-setter at the top of the order this year.  We all know a healthy Damon can give the Yankees just that, so it's not far-fetched to predict Johnny may have a terrific second half. It's going to be needed.

Besides Damon, the Yankees must get more consistent offensives performances from Bobby Abreu and Robinson Cano. Both players are capable, but like Johnny, they have to get it going quickly. Abreu had a great second half last year, and hopefully Cano has learned one good year doesn't make you a super star. Robinson has to concentrate more, and be more selective at the plate.

Unlike the first two months of the season, the Yankees have four solid starters in their rotation to begin the second half. Just the fact that Wang, Pettitte, Mussina, and Clemens will be in rotation will make the second half Yanks a much improved team. Unfortunately, when you are nine games behind, you need production from your fifth starter. Kei Igawa is not the answer here.  As written numerous times on this site, Igawa just doesn't have the stuff to pitch effectively as a starter at this level.  In a week or two, the Yankees may have two options besides Igawa. Both Phil Hughes and Jeff Karstens are rehabbing and could help the Yanks out by late July. If Hughes joins the rotation, Karstens can be a much needed long man out of the bullpen.

It's going to be very important that Luis Vizcaino continues to pitch well out of the Yankee pen. An effective Vizcaino gives manager Joe Torre an alternative to Kyle Farnsworth and Scott Proctor who both have been very inconsistent this year.

As with every Yankee team in recent history, Brian Cashman is going to play a key role in the Yankees quest in catching Boston. There are a few holes on this team which the Yankees can't fix from within. In some way, Cashman has to get a first baseman, another reliever, and a bat for the bench, by the July 31'st trading deadline. The loss of a healthy Giambi has really hurt, and no one knows if he can come back this year. With his offense gone, it's imperative that the Yanks get another power bat to protect Alex Rodriguez.

If you look at the Yankees schedule for the next month, you can conclude if the Yankees get their act together, they will pile up the wins. It's easy to say, but the Yankees have to play each game with extreme urgency, as if their season is on the line each day. Boston is not a super team and has many flaws. Unlike a few weeks ago, the Yankees can't afford to go on losing streaks when Boston is losing. The Red Sox will have their share of losing streaks in the second half, but the Yankees must capitalize on them.

This 2007 comeback is not going to be easy, but despite what the "experts" think, it can be done. Don't take my word for it, just look at their track record.

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